Supramax and Handysize Miss the Rally as Capesize and Panamax Pull Away

The Baltic Dry Index’s headline strength into month-end masked a fleet moving in two different directions. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) closed 31 July at 4,296, up from a midweek low of 4,067, and the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) rallied to 2,087 from a Tuesday low of 1,988. The Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) and Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) told the opposite story, drifting lower all week to close at 1,609 and 887 — both down on where they started.

Supramax softened from 1,670 to 1,609 over the week as the summer holiday period thinned overall activity, according to HandyBulk. North American routes were the weakest part of the market, with both key routes there falling by more than $2,000 over the period — representative fixtures included a 63K DWT ultramax taken for a grains fronthaul at around $28,500 and a 57K DWT supramax open US Gulf to Spain at around $23,000. The East Mediterranean bucked the trend on fresh grain demand, and the Indian Ocean stayed relatively active, with a 63K DWT ultramax open West Coast India via South Africa to China fixed at around $20,000. Asia came under pressure as tonnage built, with a 63K DWT ultramax open North China via the North Pacific to China fixed at around $18,000, though period cover held up, with a 63K DWT ultramax fixed short period at around $22,500.

Handysize followed a similar pattern, easing from 903 to 887, with Atlantic weakness offsetting improving sentiment in Asia. The Continent and Mediterranean stayed largely flat — a 39K DWT handysize open Turkiye’s Marmara Sea via Romania to Spain fixed at around $16,500 — while the US Gulf and East Coast South America remained under pressure, with a 38K DWT handysize open West Africa via Argentina to China fixed at around $21,500. Asia was the bright spot, with sentiment improving from quiet to firmer as a 38K DWT handysize open Singapore via Australia to China fixed at around $17,500.

The split is partly structural. Capesize and Panamax are riding iron ore, coal and grain demand on long-haul routes where a handful of large fixtures move the index sharply; Supramax and Handysize depend on a wider, more fragmented spread of regional and agricultural cargoes that are more exposed to seasonal lulls. It is also a margin story: VLSFO firmed at Singapore to $837.50 (+$7.00) over the same week, adding bunker cost pressure just as smaller-ship freight was softening — a tighter squeeze on Supramax and Handysize owners than on the segments currently riding the rally.

The question for early August is whether fresh Black Sea and US Gulf grain enquiry is enough to pull Supramax and Handysize back into line with the rest of the fleet, or whether the gap between the bigger and smaller segments keeps widening.