FuelEU, EU ETS and the real cost of bunkers in 2026

Bunker cost used to be a single-line item on a voyage estimate: price per tonne, times consumption, done. That's no longer true for any vessel calling an EU or EEA port. Between the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) now applying in full to maritime CO2 emissions and FuelEU Maritime's greenhouse gas intensity requirements phasing in alongside it, the effective cost of fuelling a laden voyage into or out of Europe now carries a compliance cost that has to be estimated separately from the bunker price itself.

Two regulations, two different mechanisms

EU ETS works like a carbon tax with a market-set price: shipowners must surrender allowances for CO2 emitted on voyages to, from and within the EU/EEA, with the applicable share of emissions covered rising over the scheme's phase-in. The cost is directly proportional to fuel burned and the prevailing EU carbon allowance price, which means it moves with the carbon market independently of the bunker market.

FuelEU Maritime works differently — it sets a declining limit on the greenhouse gas intensity of the energy used on board, pushing operators toward lower-carbon fuels or efficiency measures over time, with penalties for vessels that miss the target. For a conventional VLSFO-burning bulker with no alternative fuel or efficiency retrofit, that penalty risk is a real and growing line item rather than a one-off cost.

What this means in practice for a dry bulk voyage

• A voyage estimate that only prices bunkers at the quoted VLSFO rate is now structurally incomplete for any EU-calling itinerary — carbon compliance has to be added as its own line.
• Owners trading predominantly outside EU/EEA waters are largely insulated from ETS today, which is starting to show up as a routing and chartering preference for cargoes with EU discharge ports.
• The compliance cost gap between an efficient, modern vessel and an older, less efficient one is widening — which is starting to show up as a genuine rate differential in owner negotiations, not just a talking point.

Where bunker prices stand right now

Physical VLSFO pricing still varies meaningfully by hub. As of early July 2026, Marcenta's desk was tracking VLSFO in the region of $675/mt in Singapore, $607/mt in Rotterdam and $669/mt in Piraeus, per aggregated pricing from Ship & Bunker and Baltic Exchange reference data — a reminder that bunkering strategy (where you fuel, not just how much) remains one of the largest single controllable costs on any voyage, before carbon compliance is even added.

What we tell clients

For any fixture with an EU or EEA leg, Marcenta's chartering desk now separates the freight conversation into three distinct numbers: the physical bunker cost at the relevant hub, the estimated EU ETS allowance cost for that voyage's emissions, and any FuelEU compliance balance the vessel is carrying. Blending all three into a single freight figure without showing the components is how disputes start six months later — we'd rather show the working.