Capesize Slump Drags Baltic Dry Index to 2,545 as Brent Holds Near $110: Market Insight, 17 October 2026
The dry bulk market ended the working week on the back foot, led once again by the Atlantic and Pacific capesize sectors. The most recent confirmed daily Baltic prints are those of 15 October 2026; the 16 October numerical close was not yet confirmed at the time of writing, so every index figure below is dated 15 October. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stood at 2,545 points, down 122 points from the prior session’s 2,667.
Baltic Indices: 15 October 2026 Close
| Index | Level | Daily change | Average daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,545 | -122 pts | – |
| BCI (Capesize) | 3,322 | -308 pts | $30,128/day (-$2,792) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,356 | -53 pts | $21,200/day (-$480) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,856 | +11 pts | $23,466/day (+$139) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,007 | +4 pts | $18,131/day (+$75) |
The split is now unmistakable. Capesize earnings have shed roughly $7,000 per day in the space of three sessions, with the BCI down from 4,148 on 12 October to 3,322, while supramax and handysize have quietly ground higher every day this week. The BDI is being pulled lower by the largest ships only.
Capesize: Weakness in Both Basins
The week-42 reading for the Baltic Capesize 5TC fell from $37,618 at Monday’s close to $29,464 by Friday. In the Pacific, West Australia-Qingdao (C5) fixtures slid from $13.40 at the start of the week to $11.25 by Thursday, before the return of two miners on Friday allowed the route to close the week at $11.70 per tonne (week of 12-16 October 2026). In the Atlantic, ample tonnage and thin buying appetite kept pressure on the Brazil and West Africa to China trades, with index-date business slipping towards $30 per tonne. A long ballaster list and a shift in charterer interest towards November loading dates continue to cap any rebound.
Panamax, Supramax and Handysize
Panamax gave back a modest 53 points as Atlantic sentiment faded on accumulating tonnage in the North Continent and South Atlantic, while the Pacific stayed comparatively resilient on Indonesia, Australia and North Pacific demand. Recent reported fixtures include a 76,000-dwt on an Indonesia trip to South China at $18,000 and an 82,000-dwt on an Australia round trip at $19,000. Supramax and handysize extended their quiet climb, with the BSI and BHSI both higher again on the day.
Bunkers: 16 October 2026 Close
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 913.50 | +2.00 | 1,254.00 | -24.50 |
| Rotterdam | 740.50 | +5.00 | 1,392.50 | -2.50 |
| Fujairah | 967.00 | -3.50 | 1,606.50 | -117.50 |
VLSFO was broadly steady, with Singapore and Rotterdam edging up and Fujairah slightly softer. Distillates remain far more expensive than residual-grade fuel, and the sharp drop in Fujairah MGO still leaves it above $1,600 per tonne. Owners trading in the Gulf region are carrying a heavy fuel cost premium into every voyage calculation.
Brent and the Wider Backdrop
Brent is trading at $109.95 per barrel at the time of writing. With crude this elevated, bunker costs remain a decisive factor in voyage economics, particularly for owners weighing slow steaming against the depressed capesize earnings. Security remains in focus after further reports of merchant vessels, including an LNG tanker, being struck in the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps war-risk premiums and Gulf routing costs under close watch.
What We Are Watching
- The numerical 16 October close for the Baltic indices, to confirm whether the capesize slide continued into the end of the week.
- Whether the return of miners in the Pacific can stabilise C5 around $11.70 or whether the route tests lower levels.
- The size of the Atlantic ballaster list and the timing of November-loading cargo enquiry for capesize.
- Panamax Atlantic balance as tonnage builds in the North Continent and South Atlantic.
- Developments around the Strait of Hormuz and their effect on Brent, bunker spreads and war-risk costs.
Marcenta Chartering and Shipping will continue to track the market and update this view as confirmed data arrives.