Capesize Slips Below 4,000 as Baltic Dry Index Eases to 2,801: Dry Bulk Market Insight, 14 October 2026

The Baltic Dry Index lost 51 points to 2,801 at Tuesday's close (13 October 2026), its second consecutive decline, as the Capesize segment dropped below the 4,000 mark after a second straight fall. The Baltic Capesize Index shed 154 points to 3,994, while Supramax and Handysize edged higher and Panamax was unchanged. Figures below refer to the 13 October close unless stated otherwise.

Baltic indices: Capesize still the drag

Capesize earnings have now given back close to $3,100 per day in two sessions, from $37,618 at Monday's close to $36,222, extending the slide that began last week. The geared sectors are doing the opposite: Supramax earnings are above $23,000 per day and Handysize is back at the 1,000 mark, a level that underlines how differently the segments are trading at present.

Capesize: Atlantic weakness outweighs Pacific activity

For the week ending 9 October 2026, the Capesize 5TC slid from $43,833 on Monday to $39,363 on Friday, and the following sessions have taken it lower still. The weakness is concentrated in the Atlantic, where South Brazil and West Africa business to China remains under pressure and a long ballaster list continues to weigh on the balance, with charterers increasingly focused on November dates.

The Pacific is firmer in tone but not yet in rate. Activity on West Australia to Qingdao was exceptionally heavy, with close to twenty vessels reported fixed in a single session, yet the resulting improvement was modest.

C5 touched the upper $14s mid-week before later fixtures at $14.20 and $14.15 showed the recovery lacked momentum. C3 lost roughly $4 over the week, a sharp move that reflects how heavily tonnage is stacked up in the Atlantic.

Panamax and the smaller sizes hold their ground

Panamax and Kamsarmax sentiment improved through the week as transatlantic demand absorbed tonnage and East Coast South America fronthaul remained the main support, with prompt ships attracting the strongest interest. Pacific enquiry from Australia and the North Pacific also picked up after the regional holidays. Supramax and Ultramax trading was largely uneventful, but Continent scrap and US Gulf business continued to print very firm numbers, which helps explain why the BSI is edging higher while the larger sizes retreat.

Bunkers: all three hubs firmer on 13 October

Fujairah remains the most expensive of the three hubs for VLSFO at $987.50, $251 above Rotterdam, while the MGO premium over VLSFO is very wide everywhere, from roughly $645 per tonne in Rotterdam to nearly $700 in Fujairah. Owners with flexibility on fuel grade and bunkering location are seeing real money on the table, particularly on Atlantic-to-Far East ballast legs.

Brent and the wider backdrop

Brent is trading at $105.60 per barrel at the time of writing, keeping fuel costs elevated and adding weight to the cost side of every voyage estimate. High bunker prices favour slower steaming, which quietly supports effective tonnage supply at a time when the Atlantic Capesize market already has more ships than cargoes.

What We Are Watching

• Capesize Atlantic balance: whether the ballaster list clears as November cargoes come into focus, or whether C3 slips further below $33.
• Pacific C5 momentum: a sustained move above $14.50 would signal that heavy fixing volume is finally absorbing tonnage.
• The 3,900 area on the BCI: a further leg lower would take the Capesize index lower and pull the BDI towards 2,700.
• Fuel costs: Brent above $100 and a very wide MGO premium will keep voyage estimates sensitive to bunker positioning.

Marcenta Chartering and Shipping will continue to track the daily Baltic prints and bunker levels. For voyage estimates, enquiries or fixture support, please contact our chartering desk.