Capesize Slides for a Third Session as Panamax Holds Near $21,500: Dry Bulk Market Insight, 1 October 2026
The Baltic Dry Index closed at 3,113 on 30 September, down 65 points (-2.0%) on the day, as the Capesize segment shed more ground while Panamax, Supramax and Handysize barely moved. It is the third consecutive session of losses for the headline index, which stood at 3,268 on 28 September and 3,178 on 29 September.
Baltic Indices, 30 September 2026 Close
| Index | Close | Change | Avg. daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 3,113 | -65 (-2.0%) | – |
| BCI (Capesize) | 4,928 | -175 (-3.4%) | $44,694 (-$1,584) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,384 | -6 (-0.3%) | $21,458 (-$49) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,797 | 0 (0.0%) | $22,714 (+$4) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,012 | -1 (-0.1%) | $18,210 (-$16) |
Capesize is again carrying the index lower. Average daily earnings of $44,694 compare with $48,527 on 28 September, a decline of roughly $3,800 a day in two sessions, and the weekly time charter average of $52,457 recorded at the 25 September close now looks a long way back. Panamax is holding just above $21,400 a day, and Supramax and Handysize are essentially flat. The index is being pulled down by a single segment rather than by broad weakness.
Capesize Routes
In the Pacific, the West Australia to Qingdao route (C5) slipped from $16.685 to $15.625 per tonne at the Friday 25 September close, the latest weekly print, as a run of fixtures by miners and operators weighed on sentiment. In the Atlantic, the C8 trans-Atlantic route finished that week at $62,938 and C9 at $91,494, both still near their strongest levels since early December 2025 even after softer fixtures appeared late in the week. The Pacific is where owners are feeling the pressure first, while the Atlantic is still supported by tight prompt tonnage in the North Atlantic.
Bunkers, 30 September 2026
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 854.00 | -11.50 | 1,278.50 | -11.00 |
| Rotterdam | 681.00 | -5.50 | 1,400.00 | +10.00 |
| Fujairah | 944.50 | -19.00 | 1,675.50 | +9.00 |
VLSFO eased at all three benchmark ports, with Fujairah down $19 a tonne and Singapore down $11.50. MGO moved the other way in Rotterdam and Fujairah, widening the gap between marine gasoil and VLSFO to nearly $720 a tonne in Rotterdam. For voyage estimating on VLSFO-burning tonnage the direction is helpful, but the distillate premium remains a cost to manage for vessels that need low-sulphur gasoil in emission control areas.
Brent
Brent is quoted at $99.88 at the time of writing. Crude close to $100 keeps fuel a significant part of the voyage cost calculation, so the recent softness in VLSFO deserves watching for durability before it is treated as a trend.
Market Developments
Asian holidays are limiting activity in the Pacific and are a large part of why the smaller sizes are moving so little, with the Supramax and Ultramax space described as subdued and flat. The Panamax and Kamsarmax sector looks firmer in the Atlantic, where cargo enquiry has improved and prompt tonnage in the North Continent and West Mediterranean is tightening, with a kamsarmax open in southern Spain reported fixed for a fronthaul trip via the US Gulf at $27,500 a day. Indonesian demand also recovered later in the week, which helped Pacific sentiment.
What We Are Watching
- Whether Capesize earnings stabilise around the $44,000 a day level or extend lower after three straight daily declines.
- The next weekly C5 print from West Australia, which will show whether miner fixtures keep pressing Pacific rates down.
- Cargo enquiry out of China once the holiday period ends.
- Atlantic Capesize strength, especially C8 and C9, and whether it can offset Pacific softness.
- Bunker direction at Singapore and Fujairah with Brent near $100.