Capesize Slides as the Baltic Dry Index Falls to 2,648 and Bunkers Retreat: Market Insight, 3 November 2026
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 2,648 points on Monday 2 November 2026, down 66 points on the day, as the Capesize segment gave back part of last week’s rally and Panamax and Supramax edged lower again. Handysize was unchanged. All figures below refer to the 2 November close, the latest numerical print available at the time of writing.
Baltic Indices: Capesize Corrects
| Index | Close (2 Nov) | Daily change | Average daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,648 | -66 | – |
| BCI (Capesize) | 3,963 | -163 | $35,944 (-$1,476) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 1,874 | -15 | $16,867 (-$132) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,856 | -9 | $23,458 (-$111) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,014 | 0 | $18,243 (-$12) |
The Capesize index fell 163 points, its sharpest daily drop in over a week, taking average earnings back to roughly $36,000 per day after the 5TC had climbed from $33,795 on 26 October to $37,420 on 30 October. The move reads as consolidation after a strong run rather than a change of trend: ballast lists have tightened in the Atlantic and attention is shifting to December loading dates. Panamax earnings remain below $17,000 per day with the Atlantic the weaker basin, while Supramax and Handysize continue to drift sideways to slightly lower.
Bunkers: A Broad Retreat
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 1,003.50 | -16.00 | 1,263.00 | -15.00 |
| Rotterdam | 763.50 | -31.00 | 1,402.50 | -23.00 |
| Fujairah | 991.50 | -2.00 | 1,692.50 | +3.50 |
VLSFO fell at all three benchmark ports on 2 November, with Rotterdam shedding $31 to $763.50 per tonne and Singapore easing to $1,003.50. MGO was also lower in Singapore and Rotterdam, while Fujairah MGO ticked up $3.50 to $1,692.50. The widening gap between Singapore and Rotterdam VLSFO, now about $240 per tonne, is worth noting for owners and charterers pricing bunker-adjusted voyage estimates and deciding where to stem.
Brent and the Cost Side
Brent crude was trading at $106.34 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude fell sharply at the start of the week, by about $9 per barrel to the $104 area at Monday’s close, and that sell-off is the main driver of the bunker retreat above. For Capesize and Panamax operators the lower fuel bill cushions net earnings, but a sustained slide in oil would also reduce the premium owners can charge for fuel-inefficient tonnage on spot voyages.
Market Reading
The key question for the week is whether the Capesize correction stays shallow. Fixing activity for end-November cargoes is largely covered, so December dates will determine whether sentiment holds above the $35,000 level. In the Atlantic, the gradual reduction in available ballasters has supported owners, while the Pacific has been quieter with miners cautious on cover. Panamax needs fresh cargo from the Americas to arrest its slide, and until then the BDI is likely to remain driven by the largest segment.
What We Are Watching
- Whether the BCI holds above 3,900 or extends its pullback toward 3,700 over the next sessions.
- Fresh December Capesize enquiry from Brazil, West Africa and Western Australia to China.
- Panamax Atlantic tonnage counts and the pace of ballasting from the Indian Ocean toward East Coast South America.
- Whether the oil sell-off carries into further VLSFO and MGO declines, particularly in Rotterdam.