Capesize Rebounds as the Baltic Dry Index Climbs to 2,694 and Bunkers Extend Losses: Market Insight, 5 November 2026
The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2,694 points on 4 November 2026, up 104 points on the day and recovering most of the ground lost over the previous two sessions. The move was driven almost entirely by the Capesize segment, while Supramax slipped and Handysize was flat. These figures are the 4 November close; the 5 November print was not confirmed at the time of writing.
Baltic Indices: 4 November 2026 Close
| Index | Close (points) | Average daily earnings |
|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,694 (+104) | n/a |
| BCI (Capesize) | 4,097 (+276) | $37,162 (+$2,511) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 1,894 (+28) | $17,049 (+$258) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,835 (-11) | $23,193 (-$143) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,016 (+2) | $18,296 (+$44) |
Capesize did the heavy lifting, with the BCI up 7.2% in a single session and average daily earnings back above $37,000. The week-ending commentary pointed to a gradually tightening ballaster list, firm Atlantic enquiry from South Brazil and West Africa to China, and charterers turning their attention to December loading dates now that most late-November cargoes are covered. Sentiment into the new week is clearly more constructive than it was seven days ago.
Panamax added a modest 28 points, but the underlying picture remains uneven. The Atlantic is still the weaker basin, with limited transatlantic demand and ballasters arriving from the Indian Ocean, while the Pacific has softened on thin North Pacific and East Coast Australia activity. Supramax and Handysize are range-bound, with the Supramax index easing for a third consecutive session.
Bunker Prices: 4 November 2026
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | MGO ($/mt) |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore | $901.50 (-40.00) | $1,264.50 (-5.50) |
| Rotterdam | $747.00 (-8.50) | $1,383.50 (-5.00) |
| Fujairah | $907.50 (-49.00) | $1,661.00 (-18.00) |
Fuel costs fell across all three hubs, with Fujairah and Singapore giving back the most on VLSFO. Rotterdam remains the cheapest of the three by a wide margin, a spread of roughly $155 per tonne to Singapore that keeps bunkering strategy relevant for owners and charterers on Atlantic-to-Pacific itineraries. Lower fuel eases voyage costs on the Capesize ballast legs that are now being fixed for December.
What We Are Watching
- Whether the Capesize recovery holds as December cargoes are worked, and whether the Pacific can follow the Atlantic higher.
- Panamax fronthaul demand from East Coast South America, where ballasting tonnage is still capping rates.
- The next bunker prints, to see if the sharp declines in Singapore and Fujairah extend or stabilise.
- The 5 November Baltic close, which will show how much of the Capesize bounce is retained.