Capesize Leads Baltic Dry Index Lower to 2,545 as C5 Closes the Week at $11.70: Market Insight, 18 October 2026
The dry bulk market enters the new week with capesize still setting the tone. The most recent confirmed daily Baltic prints are those of 15 October 2026; the 16 October numerical close was not confirmed at the time of writing, so every daily index figure below is dated 15 October. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stood at 2,545 points, down 122 points on the day. Over the four sessions from 12 October the index has shed 307 points from 2,852.
Baltic Indices: 15 October 2026 Close
| Index | Level | Daily change | Average daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,545 | -122 pts | – |
| BCI (Capesize) | 3,322 | -308 pts | $30,128/day (-$2,792) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,356 | -53 pts | $21,200/day (-$480) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,856 | +11 pts | $23,466/day (+$139) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,007 | +4 pts | $18,131/day (+$75) |
The divergence by size remains the story. Capesize earnings have fallen by more than $7,000 per day since 12 October, while supramax and handysize have edged higher every session of the week.
Capesize: The Week in Review
For the week of 12-16 October 2026, the Baltic Capesize 5TC fell from $37,618 at Monday’s close to $29,464 by Friday, a drop of roughly 22 percent. In the Pacific, West Australia-Qingdao (C5) fixtures eased from $13.40 at the start of the week to $11.25 by Thursday, before the return of two miners on Friday allowed the route to close the week at $11.70 per tonne. In the Atlantic, ample tonnage and limited buying appetite kept pressure on the Brazil and West Africa to China trades. The North Atlantic stayed subdued, with weaker transatlantic and backhaul business.
Panamax, Supramax and Handysize
Panamax conditions split by basin. Pacific demand from Australia, Indonesia and the North Pacific stayed supportive, with reported fixtures including a 76,000-dwt on an Indonesia trip to South China at $18,000, a 93,000-dwt on a North Pacific round at $20,000 and an 82,000-dwt on an Australia round trip at $19,000. The Atlantic softened as tonnage accumulated in the North Continent and South Atlantic. Period interest remained visible, with a 75,000-dwt reported at $19,000 for five to seven months. Supramax continued its slow climb on Asian strength, with a 63,000-dwt fixed from Santos to Ain Sukhna at $36,000. Handysize was mixed: the South Atlantic stayed firm with a 36,000-dwt on subjects from Santos at $31,500, while the US Gulf remained sluggish.
Bunkers: 16 October 2026 Close
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 913.50 | +2.00 | 1,254.00 | -24.50 |
| Rotterdam | 740.50 | +5.00 | 1,392.50 | -2.50 |
| Fujairah | 967.00 | -3.50 | 1,606.50 | -117.50 |
VLSFO was broadly steady, with Singapore and Rotterdam slightly firmer and Fujairah marginally softer. Distillates remain far more expensive than residual-grade fuel, and even after the sharp fall in Fujairah MGO the grade is still above $1,600 per tonne. The gap between Rotterdam and Fujairah VLSFO, at more than $225 per tonne, is large enough to matter in bunkering-port selection on open-ended voyage calculations.
Brent Crude
Brent crude is trading at $109.95 per barrel at the time of writing. With oil near $110, fuel remains a heavy component of voyage costs, and slower-steaming economics continue to favour owners on longer ballast legs, particularly in a capesize market where ballasters are plentiful.
What We Are Watching
- Whether the return of miners to the C5 route on Friday proves durable or fades as it did earlier in the week.
- The size of the capesize ballaster list in the Atlantic and any shift of charterer interest towards November loading dates.
- The first confirmed Baltic print after 15 October, to see whether the capesize decline continues into the new week.
- Whether panamax Pacific strength can offset Atlantic softness, and whether supramax and handysize can keep rising while the largest ships fall.
- Fuel cost: Brent near $110 and the persistent distillate premium in Singapore, Rotterdam and Fujairah.