Capesize Earnings Hold Near $34,900 as Bunkers Climb: Dry Bulk Market Insight, 24 October 2026
The Baltic Dry Index stood at 2,693 points at the last published close, Thursday 22 October 2026, up 13 points and a fourth consecutive daily gain. Capesize and supramax added modestly, handysize was flat, and panamax gave back another 53 points. Friday's printed close was not confirmed at the time of writing.
Baltic Indices: Close of 22 October 2026
| Index | Close | Change | Average daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,693 | +13 | n/a |
| BCI (Capesize) | 3,848 | +5 | $34,899 (+$501) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,151 | -53 | $19,358 (-$478) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,890 | +20 | $23,891 (+$253) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,020 | +1 | $18,357 (+$21) |
Capesize remains the anchor of the complex, with earnings steady in the mid-$30,000s. Panamax is the soft spot: the Atlantic is oversupplied and fronthaul business is under pressure as owners cut expectations to secure employment, while the Pacific has been comparatively resilient on Australian and Indonesian demand. Supramax is firming gently, and handysize is flat just above 1,000 points.
Capesize Routes: Week of 19-23 October 2026
| Route | Level | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| C5 West Australia - Qingdao | $14.15-14.25/mt | Advanced from the low $12s as miners covered early-November requirements |
| C3 Tubarao - Qingdao | $34.00-34.50/mt | Rose from the low $31s on forward bids; a $33.25 rumour for 15-20 November tempered sentiment |
The 5TC time charter average recovered from $30,518 on Monday to $34,380 by Friday. The Pacific led the rebound on renewed miner participation, and the Atlantic followed as South Brazil and West Africa cargoes to China gathered pace. Demand is now concentrating on end-November and split November-December dates.
Bunker Prices: Close of 23 October 2026
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 963.00 | +26.00 | 1,351.50 | +10.50 |
| Rotterdam | 766.00 | +3.00 | 1,446.00 | +11.50 |
| Fujairah | 981.00 | +12.00 | 1,768.50 | +17.50 |
Singapore VLSFO jumped $26 to $963 per tonne, the top of its range since August, and the Singapore-Rotterdam spread has widened to nearly $200. Distillate prices are even firmer, with Fujairah MGO above $1,750. Owners fixing on a voyage basis should price the bunker leg carefully, particularly on long Pacific and Atlantic round trips where each $25 move adds meaningfully to the daily cost.
Brent Crude
Brent is trading at $117.38 per barrel at the time of writing. Elevated crude continues to feed through into fuel costs and keeps net earnings under scrutiny even where headline freight holds up.
What We Are Watching
- The Friday 23 October index prints and whether capesize extends beyond the $35,000 per day area.
- Whether C3 holds above $34 as November cargoes are covered, given the lower rumoured fixture.
- Atlantic panamax tonnage supply and whether fronthaul levels stabilise.
- The pass-through of rising VLSFO and MGO into voyage estimates, with Brent above $115.