Baltic Dry Index Slips to 2,852 as Capesize Falls to $37,618: Dry Bulk Market Insight, 13 October 2026
The Baltic Dry Index lost 65 points to 2,852 at Monday's close (12 October 2026), as another sharp fall in the Capesize segment outweighed small gains across the three geared sectors. The Baltic Capesize Index shed 192 points to 4,148, while Panamax, Supramax and Handysize all ticked higher. Figures below refer to the 12 October close unless stated otherwise.
Baltic indices: Capesize drags, geared sizes edge up
| Index | Close (12 Oct) | Change | Avg. daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,852 | -65 pts (-2.2%) | - |
| BCI (Capesize) | 4,148 | -192 pts (-4.4%) | $37,618/day (-$1,745) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,432 | +8 pts (+0.3%) | $21,888/day (+$75) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,821 | +7 pts (+0.4%) | $23,023/day (+$94) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 998 | +2 pts (+0.2%) | $17,970/day (+$44) |
The divergence is the story of the week. Capesize earnings have now fallen well below the levels seen at the start of the previous week, and the sector's weakness is the sole reason the headline index is lower. The smaller sizes are moving sideways to slightly firmer, with Panamax the better of the three on the back of stronger transatlantic and Pacific enquiry.
Capesize: Atlantic ballasters weigh, Pacific holds
For the week ended 9 October the Capesize 5TC slid from $43,833 on Monday to $39,363 on Friday, and the slide continued on Monday. The Atlantic remains the problem basin: a long list of ballasters, together with demand shifting to November loading dates, has kept pressure on South Brazil and West Africa business to China. The Tubarao-Qingdao route (C3) fell from the low $37s at the start of that week to around $33 per tonne by Friday.
The Pacific was more resilient. Close to 20 Capesize fixtures were reported on Wednesday alone, and the West Australia-Qingdao route (C5) opened that week at $13.95 per tonne, improved into the upper $14s, and then settled with late fixtures at $14.20 and $14.15. Strong fixing volume has so far translated into only a modest improvement in rates, which suggests tonnage supply in the Pacific is still adequate.
| Capesize route | Level (week of 5-9 Oct 2026) |
|---|---|
| C3 Tubarao-Qingdao | around $33 per tonne (from low $37s) |
| C5 West Australia-Qingdao | $14.15 per tonne (week opened at $13.95) |
Bunker prices: 12 October 2026
VLSFO was mixed, with Rotterdam up $20 and Singapore and Fujairah slightly higher. Marine gasoil moved the other way, easing at all three hubs, although it still trades at a very large premium to VLSFO.
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 892.50 | +3.00 | 1,247.50 | -33.50 |
| Rotterdam | 735.00 | +20.00 | 1,368.50 | -5.50 |
| Fujairah | 973.00 | +5.50 | 1,677.00 | -17.50 |
Rotterdam remains the cheapest of the three VLSFO hubs by a wide margin, at roughly $158 per tonne below Singapore and $238 below Fujairah. On long ballast legs towards the Atlantic, bunkering decisions are now a meaningful part of voyage economics.
Brent and the wider backdrop
Brent is trading at $104.91 per barrel at the time of writing, keeping fuel costs elevated. Oil edged lower at the start of the week on talk of additional Russian diesel reaching the market, but risk of further hostilities involving Iran continues to cloud trading and keeps a firm floor under crude and bunker prices. For dry bulk, high fuel costs favour slower steaming and add weight to the cost side of every voyage estimate, particularly on long Atlantic-to-Far East legs.
What We Are Watching
- Capesize Atlantic balance: whether the ballaster list clears as November cargoes come into focus, or whether C3 extends its fall below $33.
- Pacific C5 momentum: a sustained move above $14.50 would signal that heavy fixing volume is finally absorbing tonnage.
- Panamax follow-through: ECSA fronthaul and North Pacific demand are the key supports for the one sector with real upward momentum.
- Fuel costs: Brent above $100 and a wide MGO premium will keep voyage estimates sensitive to bunker positioning.
Marcenta Chartering and Shipping will continue to track the daily Baltic prints and bunker levels. For voyage estimates, enquiries or fixture support, please contact our chartering desk.