Baltic Dry Index Falls to 2,545 as Capesize Drops to $30,128: Dry Bulk Market Insight, 16 October 2026
The Baltic Dry Index fell 122 points to 2,545 at Thursday's close (15 October 2026), its fourth consecutive decline, as the Capesize segment shed a further 308 points. Supramax and Handysize edged higher for a fourth session, while Panamax slipped again. Figures below refer to the 15 October close unless stated otherwise.
Baltic indices: Capesize still leads the slide
| Index | Close (15 Oct) | Change | Avg. daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,545 | -122 pts (-4.6%) | - |
| BCI (Capesize) | 3,322 | -308 pts (-8.5%) | $30,128 (-$2,792) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,356 | -53 pts (-2.2%) | $21,200 (-$480) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,856 | +11 pts (+0.6%) | $23,466 (+$139) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,007 | +4 pts (+0.4%) | $18,131 (+$75) |
Capesize earnings have fallen from $37,618 per day at Monday's close to $30,128, a drop of nearly $7,500 in four sessions. Supramax earnings now sit above $23,400 per day and Handysize continues to hold above the 1,000 mark, underlining how differently the sizes are trading.
Capesize: Atlantic weakness outweighs a quiet Pacific recovery
For the week ending 9 October 2026, the Capesize 5TC slid from $43,833 on Monday to $39,363 on Friday, and this week's prints show the decline has not stopped. The Atlantic remains the weaker basin, with South Brazil and West Africa to China business under pressure, a long ballaster list weighing on the balance, and charterers increasingly focused on November dates. The Pacific is firmer in tone after heavy fixing activity, with close to twenty vessels reported fixed on a single day last week, although the improvement in rates has been modest.
| Route | Level | Reference period |
|---|---|---|
| C5 West Australia-Qingdao | $14.15/mt (opened at $13.95) | Week of 5-9 Oct 2026 |
C5 touched the upper $14s mid-week before later fixtures at $14.20 and $14.15 showed that the recovery lacked momentum despite exceptionally strong fixing volumes.
Panamax and the smaller sizes
Panamax and Kamsarmax sentiment improved through last week as transatlantic demand absorbed tonnage and East Coast South America fronthaul remained the main support, with prompt positions attracting the strongest interest. Enquiry from Australia and the North Pacific also picked up after regional holidays. The index has eased this week, but earnings above $21,000 per day keep the sector well supported relative to Capesize.
Bunkers: softer at the 15 October close, Rotterdam MGO sharply lower
Prices at the three main hubs moved lower at the 15 October close, with Rotterdam marine gasoil giving back $40.50 and Fujairah VLSFO down $15.50.
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 911.50 | -5.50 | 1,278.50 | -16.50 |
| Rotterdam | 735.50 | -6.50 | 1,395.00 | -40.50 |
| Fujairah | 970.50 | -15.50 | 1,724.00 | -1.50 |
The Singapore MGO premium over VLSFO remains wide at roughly $367 per tonne, while Rotterdam VLSFO continues to trade well below Asian and Middle East hubs. EU ETS allowances were last seen at about EUR 86 per tonne, adding around $309 per tonne to VLSFO compliance cost for voyages in scope.
Brent and the wider backdrop
Brent crude is trading at about $105.40 per barrel at the time of writing, keeping fuel costs elevated for voyage charterers and supporting the case for slower steaming on weaker Atlantic trades. Security remains a background concern in the Gulf of Oman after reports of a tanker struck by a drone near the Sohar anchorage, a reminder that war-risk and routing considerations can change quickly for owners trading to the region.
What We Are Watching
- Whether Capesize earnings find a floor near $30,000 per day or whether the Atlantic ballaster list pushes the 5TC lower into the weekend.
- November loading enquiry from Brazil and West Africa to China, which will decide whether Atlantic sentiment turns.
- Pacific Capesize follow-through on C5 after last week's heavy fixing volumes.
- Continued strength in the geared sizes, particularly Supramax earnings above $23,000 per day.
- Bunker spreads between VLSFO and MGO, and any further moves in Brent that could shift voyage economics.