Baltic Dry Index Edges Up to 2,693 as Capesize Holds Above $34,800: Market Insight, 23 October 2026
The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2,693 points on Thursday 22 October 2026, up 13 points on the session and a fourth consecutive daily gain. The advance was far smaller than the 87-point jump of the previous session: capesize and supramax added modestly, handysize was flat, and panamax gave back another 53 points.
Baltic Indices: Close of 22 October 2026
| Index | Close | Change | Avg. daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,693 | +13 pts | - |
| BCI (Capesize) | 3,848 | +5 pts | $34,899 (+$501) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,151 | -53 pts | $19,358 (-$478) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,890 | +20 pts | $23,891 (+$253) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,020 | +1 pt | $18,357 (+$21) |
Capesize has now added 483 index points since the 19 October close of 3,365, and average daily earnings sit about $4,400 higher over the same stretch. The latest session was a consolidation rather than a fresh leg up, which is a reasonable pause after three sessions of sharp gains. Panamax, by contrast, has now fallen four sessions running, from 2,286 on 19 October to 2,151, and earnings are down to $19,358. Supramax continues to build quietly, with the BSI up 20 points to 1,890 and earnings near $23,900.
Capesize: Pacific Support, Atlantic Caution
The West Australia to Qingdao iron ore route (C5) closed the week of 12-16 October at $11.70 per metric ton, recovering from $11.25 earlier in the week after two major miners returned to the market on the Friday. That Pacific support appears to be carrying into the current rebound. The Atlantic remains the softer basin, with ample tonnage in South Brazil and West Africa to China business and limited buying appetite during the same week. With the 5TC average having slid from $37,618 to $29,464 across 12-16 October, the recovery to above $34,800 in the BCI-based earnings figure is a sizeable retracement, and owners will want to see it hold into the new week.
Panamax and Smaller Sizes
The panamax and kamsarmax sector continues to split by basin. Pacific demand from Australia, Indonesia and the North Pacific has been comparatively resilient, while Atlantic sentiment has suffered from tonnage accumulating in the North Continent and South Atlantic. The falling BPI is consistent with Atlantic weakness outweighing Pacific support. Handysize is essentially flat at 1,020, having moved by only a few points per session this week.
Bunker Prices: 22 October 2026
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 937.00 | +3.50 | 1,341.00 | +12.50 |
| Rotterdam | 763.00 | +6.00 | 1,434.50 | +5.50 |
| Fujairah | 969.00 | -0.50 | 1,751.00 | -7.50 |
VLSFO was firmer in Singapore and Rotterdam and marginally softer in Fujairah. Marine gasoil followed the same pattern, rising in Singapore and Rotterdam while easing in Fujairah, where the premium over VLSFO remains the widest of the three hubs at roughly $780 per metric ton. Singapore VLSFO at $937 and Fujairah at $969 keep the cost of Asian and Middle East bunkering high against Rotterdam at $763, a spread that matters for owners optimising bunkering stops on long-haul iron ore and coal voyages.
Brent Crude
Brent crude is trading at $114.19 per barrel at the time of writing, above the $110 area seen earlier in the month. Elevated crude continues to underpin fuel costs, and at these levels voyage economics on longer routes remain sensitive to bunker price moves even with capesize earnings in the mid-$30,000s.
What We Are Watching
- Whether capesize earnings hold above $34,000 after a flat session, or whether Atlantic tonnage oversupply caps the rebound.
- The Baltic Exchange weekly report for 19-23 October, due on Friday, and the C5 print for the week.
- Panamax: a fifth consecutive decline would deepen the Atlantic-Pacific divergence.
- Brent above $114 and its pass-through to VLSFO, particularly in Singapore and Fujairah.