Baltic Dry Index Edges Up 47 Points to 2,593 as Capesize Extends Gains: Market Insight, 21 October 2026
The Baltic Dry Index rose 47 points to 2,593 at the 20 October 2026 close, its second consecutive gain, as the Capesize segment again did the heavy lifting. Panamax slipped for a second session, Supramax was flat and Handysize edged marginally higher, leaving the market firmly split between the large and mid-sized ship segments.
Baltic Indices: 20 October 2026 Close
| Index | Close | Change | Average daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,593 | +47 (+1.8%) | n/a |
| BCI (Capesize) | 3,522 | +157 (+4.7%) | $31,945 (+$1,427) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,247 | -39 (-1.7%) | $20,223 (-$350) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,868 | 0 (0.0%) | $23,615 (+$4) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,017 | +1 (+0.1%) | $18,305 (+$25) |
The Capesize index added 157 points, or 4.7%, with average daily earnings climbing $1,427 to $31,945. That is a clear bounce, but it comes off a weak base: the Capesize 5TC fell from $37,618 on Monday 12 October to $29,464 by Friday 16 October, so the past two sessions have recovered only part of that decline. Panamax earnings eased $350 to $20,223, reflecting the Atlantic basin where tonnage has been accumulating around the Continent and East Coast South America while grain enquiry remains thin.
Capesize Route Watch
On the Pacific iron ore route, West Australia to Qingdao (C5) closed the week of 12-16 October 2026 at $11.70 per metric ton. Fixtures had slipped from $13.40 at the start of that week to $11.25 on Thursday before the return of two miners on Friday gave owners enough support to resist further discounting. The bounce in the index this week suggests that the Friday miner activity has carried through, although the volume of fresh enquiry still needs to broaden before the recovery can be called durable.
Bunker Prices: 20 October 2026
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 932.50 | -1.50 | 1,318.00 | +45.50 |
| Rotterdam | 765.00 | +9.50 | 1,436.50 | +33.50 |
| Fujairah | 979.50 | +6.50 | 1,793.50 | +155.50 |
VLSFO was mixed, with Singapore marginally lower while Rotterdam and Fujairah gained. The sharper story is in distillates: MGO jumped $155.50 in Fujairah to $1,793.50 per metric ton and gained $45.50 in Singapore, widening the premium of marine gasoil over VLSFO to more than $385 per metric ton in Singapore. Owners with scrubber-free tonnage on tight voyage estimates should price in the cost of any ECA or low-sulphur requirements carefully.
Brent
Brent is trading at $109.65 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude at these levels keeps bunker costs elevated and continues to feed through to voyage economics, particularly on longer ballast legs where fuel is a large share of the cost.
What We Are Watching
- Capesize follow-through: whether the 5TC can hold above $30,000 while Pacific miner participation stays patchy.
- Atlantic Panamax: open tonnage in the North Continent and ECSA, and whether grain enquiry picks up to absorb it.
- Distillate spreads: the sustained rise in MGO, especially in the Gulf, and its effect on time charter equivalents for fuel-sensitive trades.
- Supramax and Handysize: both remain resilient, with Atlantic and North Pacific demand keeping the smaller segments close to recent highs.