Baltic Dry Index Eases to 2,973 as Capesize Slips to $40,923: Dry Bulk Market Insight, 10 October 2026
The Baltic Dry Index stands at 2,973 points on the latest confirmed close, dated 8 October 2026, down 21 points on the day. The 9 October print was not confirmed at the time of writing. Capesize remains the drag on the headline, while panamax and supramax continued to edge higher. Bunker prices are from the 9 October close, which brought a broad pull-back across the three main hubs.
Baltic Indices: 8 October 2026 Close
| Index | Close | Daily change | Average daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,973 | -21 | – |
| BCI (Capesize) | 4,512 | -85 | $40,923 (-$768) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,410 | +26 | $21,688 (+$232) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,808 | +8 | $22,851 (+$93) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,000 | -3 | $18,004 (-$52) |
Capesize earnings have now fallen for four consecutive sessions, from $43,833 on 5 October to just under $41,000 per day, as tonnage continues to accumulate. Panamax earnings, by contrast, have risen every session this week and now sit above $21,600 per day. Handysize has slipped back to the 1,000 mark.
Capesize Routes: Week of 5-9 October 2026
The C3 (Tubarao-Qingdao) route weakened through the week, with rates falling from the low $37s per tonne at the start of the week to around $33 by Friday. A long ballaster list in the Atlantic weighed on owners, and demand increasingly centred on November loading dates. In the Pacific, the C5 (West Australia-Qingdao) route was far busier, with close to 20 vessels reported fixed on Wednesday alone. Rates improved from $13.95 at the start of the week into the upper $14s, before Friday’s fixtures came in at $14.20 and $14.15 per tonne, suggesting the upward momentum has yet to settle.
Bunker Prices: 9 October 2026
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 889.50 | -18.50 | 1,281.00 | -10.50 |
| Rotterdam | 715.00 | -13.00 | 1,374.00 | -42.50 |
| Fujairah | 967.50 | -20.50 | 1,694.50 | -21.50 |
All three hubs gave back ground, with Fujairah and Singapore each down around $20 per tonne on VLSFO. Rotterdam MGO fell most sharply, by $42.50. The Fujairah-Rotterdam VLSFO spread stands at $252.50 per tonne, and Singapore-Rotterdam at $174.50, so the Northwest European discount remains wide for owners planning long-haul stems.
Brent Crude
Brent is trading at $104.54 per barrel on the live Marcenta market feed at the time of writing. Crude above $100 continues to keep a firm floor under bunker prices and makes fuel a significant share of voyage costs on longer trades.
Market Developments
Atlantic capesize sentiment stayed soft, with weaker fixtures on both fronthaul and backhaul business, while the Pacific showed greater resilience as miners and operators returned to the market after the Golden Week lull. In the panamax and kamsarmax segment, improving US Gulf and East Coast South America demand tightened the October position list and supported rates, though trading remained highly position-dependent.
Gulf security remains a background risk for fuel and war-risk costs, with a vessel reported struck by a suspected projectile in the Strait of Hormuz this week. For time-charter equivalents, lower bunker prices partly cushion the fall in capesize earnings, but the Atlantic imbalance is the dominant factor for owners right now.
What We Are Watching
- The next confirmed Baltic print, to show whether panamax and supramax gains hold while capesize continues to slide below $41,000 per day.
- Whether C3 stabilises around $33 per tonne as November dates come into focus, or the Atlantic ballaster overhang pushes it lower.
- Whether Pacific C5 fixing activity can lift rates decisively above $14.50 per tonne.
- Brent direction around the $100 level and any further Gulf incidents that could lift war-risk premia and Fujairah prices.