Baltic Dry Index Drops to 2,667 as Capesize Falls to $32,920: Dry Bulk Market Insight, 15 October 2026
The Baltic Dry Index fell 134 points to 2,667 at Wednesday's close (14 October 2026), its third consecutive decline and the weakest print of the week, as the Capesize segment shed another 364 points. Supramax and Handysize ticked higher for a second session, while Panamax slipped modestly. Figures below refer to the 14 October close unless stated otherwise.
Baltic indices: Capesize drives the slide
| Index | Close (14 Oct) | Change | Avg. daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,667 | -134 pts (-4.8%) | - |
| BCI (Capesize) | 3,630 | -364 pts (-9.1%) | $32,920 (-$3,302) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,409 | -23 pts (-0.9%) | $21,680 (-$206) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,845 | +12 pts (+0.7%) | $23,327 (+$156) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 1,003 | +3 pts (+0.3%) | $18,056 (+$62) |
Capesize earnings have now fallen from $37,618 at Monday's close to $32,920, a decline of roughly $4,700 per day in three sessions. The geared segments are moving the other way: Supramax earnings sit above $23,300 per day and Handysize has pushed through the 1,000 mark, underlining how differently the sizes are trading.
Capesize: Atlantic ballasters keep pressure on
For the week ending 9 October 2026, the Capesize 5TC slid from $43,833 on Monday to $39,363 on Friday, and this week's prints show the decline has not stopped. The Atlantic remains the weaker basin, with South Brazil and West Africa to China business under pressure, a long ballaster list weighing on the balance, and charterers increasingly focused on November dates. The Pacific is firmer in tone, with close to twenty vessels reported fixed on a single day last week, but the improvement in rate has been modest.
| Route | Level | Reference period |
|---|---|---|
| C5 West Australia-Qingdao | $14.15/mt (opened at $13.95) | Week of 5-9 Oct 2026 |
C5 touched the upper $14s mid-week before later fixtures at $14.20 and $14.15 showed that the recovery lacked momentum, despite exceptionally heavy fixing activity.
Panamax and the smaller sizes
Panamax and Kamsarmax sentiment improved through last week as transatlantic demand absorbed tonnage and East Coast South America fronthaul stayed the main support, with prompt ships attracting the strongest interest. Fixtures included an 82,000-dwt vessel open East Coast South America for a fronthaul trip at about $22,650 plus a $1,265,000 ballast bonus. Enquiry from Australia and the North Pacific also picked up after regional holidays. The index has eased slightly this week, but earnings above $21,000 per day keep the sector well supported against Capesize.
Bunkers: prices firm again, MGO leads
Bunker prices rose across the main hubs at the 14 October close, with marine gasoil outpacing very low sulphur fuel oil.
| Port | VLSFO ($/mt) | Change | MGO ($/mt) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 917.00 | +10.00 | 1,295.00 | +34.00 |
| Rotterdam | 742.00 | +5.50 | 1,435.50 | +54.00 |
| Fujairah | 986.00 | -1.50 | 1,725.50 | +38.50 |
Rotterdam remains the cheapest of the three hubs for VLSFO by a wide margin, about $175 per tonne below Singapore and $244 below Fujairah, while its MGO gained $54 in a single session. For owners fuelling on voyage economics, the VLSFO spread between Fujairah and Rotterdam is now a real factor in bunkering decisions on Atlantic and Middle East legs.
Brent
Brent crude is trading at $104.17 per barrel at the time of writing. With oil at this level, fuel stays a large component of voyage costs, and the firm bunker complex reinforces the pressure on net returns for the weaker Capesize routes.
What We Are Watching
- Capesize floor: whether the 5TC finds support in the low-to-mid $30,000s or the Atlantic ballaster overhang pulls it lower into November.
- C5 momentum: whether heavy Pacific fixing activity finally translates into a sustained move above $14.50.
- Panamax strength: if ECSA fronthaul demand holds, Panamax can keep the Baltic Dry Index from falling faster.
- Bunker spreads: continued MGO strength and the wide Rotterdam to Fujairah VLSFO gap for voyage estimating.