The Baltic Dry Index climbed a further 157 points on Thursday 3 September 2026 to close at 3,488, a gain of 4.7% and the highest print since October 2021. It was the second consecutive session of advance, and the second in which Capesize did essentially all of the work. The BCI added 400 points to 6,042, up 7.1% and its strongest level since late 2023.

The move is narrow. That is the first thing to say about it. The geared segments have not followed, and the gap between what a Capesize earns today and what a Supramax earns has widened to a point that starts to distort how the headline index reads.

Where the Market Stands

Baltic Exchange close, Wednesday 2 September 2026 (last complete print across all five indices)

Index                    Close       Change      Day-on-day
BDI  Dry Index           3,331       +174        +5.5%
BCI  Capesize            5,642       +421        +8.1%
BPI  Panamax             2,429       +69         +2.9%
BSI  Supramax            1,657       +7          +0.4%
BHSI Handysize             887       +2          +0.2%

Average daily earnings, 2 September — Capesize 5TC USD 51,169 (+3,819) · Panamax USD 21,865 (+628) · Supramax USD 20,949 (+91) · Handysize USD 15,974 (+41).

Thursday 3 September: BDI 3,488 (+157, +4.7%) and BCI 6,042 (+400, +7.1%). Prints for the Panamax, Supramax and Handysize indices were not confirmed on the wire at the time of writing.

Capesize: the Only Segment That Matters This Week

Two sessions have added 821 points to the BCI. Capesize 5TC earnings passed USD 51,000 per day on Wednesday, a level that was not on anyone’s forecast a month ago. The drivers are the familiar pair: a tight prompt tonnage list in the Pacific, and Atlantic fixing that has refused to soften.

The Baltic Exchange weekly report for the week ending 28 August set the base. C5, Western Australia to Qingdao, moved from the low USD 14s at the start of that week to above USD 16 for earlier arrivals. C3, Tubarao to Qingdao, climbed into the high USD 37s, with owners holding above USD 38 and USD 38.50 reported fixed more than once on the Friday. Sentiment went into the following week already firm, and it has firmed further since.

Capesize route benchmarks, week ending 28 August 2026
  C3  Tubarao / Qingdao          USD 38.50 /mt
  C5  W Australia / Qingdao      USD 16.00 /mt

The question for the desk is not whether this is real. It is real; the fixtures are there. The question is how much of it is a genuine demand story and how much is a supply squeeze that unwinds as tonnage repositions. Miner participation has been consistent, and operator-controlled cargo has supported the Pacific through what would normally be a quieter stretch. But an 821-point move in two sessions is not a demand curve. It is a shortage of ships in the right place, and shortages of that kind have a habit of correcting faster than they built.

Panamax and Below: Rotation, Not Participation

Panamax has had a constructive fortnight without ever threatening to lead. The BPI closed 2 September at 2,429, up 69 points, with 5TC earnings of USD 21,865. The strength has been genuinely broad-based: North Pacific grains, Australian coal, and an active East Coast South America market for second-half September dates. That combination is worth more to a broker than the headline suggests, because it is demand-led rather than position-led.

Supramax and Handysize have been close to flat. The BSI added 7 points, the BHSI added 2. The Ultramax and Supramax market has been consolidating for two weeks, with North America steady, the Continent quiet, and the Mediterranean thin on fresh demand while Black Sea grain activity stays light. The US Gulf remains the one bright spot for Handysize, where tonnage has tightened and bid levels have improved.

The practical consequence: a BDI at 3,488 does not mean a strong market for anyone chartering a 58,000-dwt vessel. Capesize is 40% of the index and is currently carrying almost all of the movement. Read the segment, not the composite.

Bunkers: the Rotterdam Discount Is the Story

Ship and Bunker world prices, close 2 September 2026, USD/mt

Port            VLSFO      Change      MGO        Change
Singapore       856.00     +18.00      1,246.00   +23.50
Rotterdam       682.00      -1.50      1,358.00   +63.00
Fujairah        859.50     +15.50      1,457.00   +10.00

Brent settled at USD 95.38 on 2 September, up USD 3.81, with WTI at USD 90.59. Crude has moved roughly nine dollars in three sessions.

Two things stand out, and both are actionable.

First, Rotterdam VLSFO at USD 682.00 sits USD 174.00 below Singapore and USD 177.50 below Fujairah. That is an unusually wide discount, and it moved the wrong way this week: Rotterdam eased while both eastern hubs firmed. For any Atlantic round or a ballast leg that can be re-planned, lifting in Rotterdam rather than east of Suez is worth serious money on a Capesize stem. On a 3,000-tonne lift the spread is above USD 500,000.

Second, the distillate market has decoupled from the residual market. Singapore MGO at USD 1,246.00 against VLSFO at USD 856.00 is a spread of USD 390.00. Rotterdam is wider still at USD 676.00, and Rotterdam MGO rose USD 63.00 in a single session while Rotterdam VLSFO fell. Any voyage with meaningful ECA time, or any vessel without a scrubber working a distillate-heavy trade, is carrying a cost that has moved materially against it in the last week. Voyage estimates built on late-August bunker assumptions need rerunning before they go out.

What We Are Watching

Whether the geared segments follow. If Supramax and Handysize begin to move in the next week, the Capesize rally is the front edge of a broader market. If they stay flat while Capesize runs, it is a positional squeeze and it will mean-revert. This is the single most useful signal on the board right now.

C3 above USD 38.50. Owners held above USD 38 through the last week of August and got paid for it. Whether that discipline survives the next round of Brazilian nominations will tell us how tight the Atlantic really is.

The Rotterdam to Singapore VLSFO spread. At USD 174.00 it is wide enough to change bunker planning on Atlantic business. If it holds into next week it stops being an opportunity and starts being an assumption.

Chinese steel margins against record ore imports. Ore volumes into China have been strong. Steel demand has been cooling. Those two cannot diverge indefinitely, and the Capesize market is the place where the reconciliation will show up first.

Marcenta Chartering and Shipping Ltd. Sources: Baltic Exchange, Ship and Bunker, Hellenic Shipping News, HandyBulk. Index figures dated as marked. This note is commercial market commentary and is not an offer, a recommendation, or investment advice.