Capesize rates are falling everywhere except on the route that matters most

The Baltic Dry Index closed at 3,445 points on Monday, down 1.8% from Friday’s 3,507 and its third consecutive daily loss, the lowest reading since September 2 (tradingeconomics.com). The Capesize index led the decline, off 2.8% week-on-week to 5,912. Panamax slipped a modest 0.6% to 2,393, while Supramax actually ticked up 0.35% to 1,725.

Look inside the Capesize number, though, and the picture splits. C3, the benchmark iron ore run from Tubarão to Qingdao, went the other way. It closed Monday at $42.00/mt, up from $41.50/mt earlier last week, and has now held a tight, elevated range since touching $41.55/mt on September 4, a level close to a multi-year high (Hellenic Shipping News, citing Baltic Exchange). Against the $37.50/mt Doric Shipbrokers had recorded on this same route on August 28, that’s roughly a 12% firming in under three weeks.

C5 (Western Australia-China) moved the opposite way over the same days, down from $18.90/mt to $17.90/mt, so the Capesize index’s overall weakness looks concentrated in routes other than the Brazil run. Our own AIS tracking shows short waiting times for Capesize vessels at Tubarão right now, though the sample is only three ships, too thin to call a trend. We don’t yet have a reliable read on congestion at Qingdao. A pickup in Brazilian iron ore export volumes is one plausible explanation for the firmness, but we don’t have independent data confirming it, so we’re not stating it as fact. Bunker costs moved higher too: VLSFO in Singapore rose to $894.00/mt (+1.9% week-on-week) and in Fujairah to $997.50/mt (+5.2%), while Rotterdam held roughly flat at $720.00/mt (bunkerindex.com). Brent settled at $105.68/bbl, up 1.0%. Note: the Handysize index (BHSI) has not been updated on handybulk.com this week; the last available reading is 940 points from September 11.

Sources: tradingeconomics.com, handybulk.com, bunkerindex.com, Hellenic Shipping News (citing Baltic Exchange), Doric Shipbrokers Weekly (28.08.2026). All figures as of close 14.09.2026 unless noted.