Monday opens with the same closing prints the market carried into the weekend: dry bulk indices and bunker prices do not trade Saturday or Sunday, so the numbers on the board are still the Baltic Exchange’s Friday (18 September) close and Friday’s bunker settlements in Singapore, Rotterdam and Fujairah. Brent crude is the one benchmark trading live this morning, and it has opened the week on the back foot.

Brent was last quoted at $102.42/bbl, down 1.40% on the session. The pullback follows reports of renewed diplomatic contact between Washington and Tehran, which have chipped away at the geopolitical premium the market has carried through most of 2026 on Strait of Hormuz risk. Owners and charterers running Gulf-related tonnage should treat the move as sentiment-driven rather than a resolved risk, but a softer Brent typically feeds through to bunker curves within a session or two if it holds.

That has not shown up yet in Friday’s settlements, where residual and distillate fuel both eased at every hub Marcenta tracks. VLSFO closed at $893.50/mt in Singapore (-20.00), $710.00/mt in Rotterdam (-6.50) and $995.50/mt in Fujairah (-26.50). MGO moved the same direction: $1,395.50/mt in Singapore (-52.50), $1,482.50/mt in Rotterdam (-30.00) and $1,705.00/mt in Fujairah (-22.00). The Fujairah MGO-over-VLSFO spread remains wide at just under $710/mt, keeping distillate exposure a live cost line for handysize and supramax owners transiting the Gulf, even as the outright levels retreated across the board.

On the Baltic, Friday’s close put the BDI at 3,370, up 34 points on the day and the fourth consecutive daily gain. Capesize did the heavy lifting: the BCI added 112 points to 5,768, with average daily earnings up $1,019 to $52,315. Supramax and handysize both firmed again, the BSI up 5 points to 1,767 (earnings $22,332, +$57) and the BHSI up 8 points to 988 (earnings $17,776, +$143). Panamax was the outlier, the BPI slipping 31 points to 2,251 as average earnings fell $273 to $20,262 — a segment still searching for Atlantic support even as the rest of the complex firmed into the weekend.

Route-level detail from the Baltic Exchange’s Week 38 roundup (14-18 September) fills in the Capesize picture: C5 (West Australia-Qingdao) opened the week in the low $17s, eased into the mid-$16s as Pacific tonnage outweighed fresh cargo demand, then stabilised into the close as sentiment steadied. C3 (Tubarao-Qingdao) told the stronger story, firming through the week into the low-to-mid $42s, with the best October-dates fixtures approaching $43 as sustained Atlantic fixing reduced both cargo availability and the number of ballasters. The BCI 182 5TC ended the week at $52,315 — down $1,307 from Monday’s $53,622, but with the trend improving into Friday’s close, which is what carried through into today’s still-elevated print.

The other development worth flagging into the new week is Panama Canal capacity. Bulker transits through the canal are running around 22% below year-ago levels since the start of July, with bulkers losing out to tankers for scarce slots as US energy exports to Asia have grown. An El Niño pattern is expected to bring lower water levels into the transit window, tightening restrictions further just as the US maize and soybean export season approaches its seasonal peak — a corridor that normally sends roughly 15% of US seaborne grain exports through the canal toward East Asia and the US West Coast. A sustained shift of that cargo onto longer Pacific-coast or round-Cape routings would add tonne-miles for Panamax and Supramax tonnage specifically, a supportive offset if it materialises against an otherwise still-soft Panamax tape.

What we are watching this week: whether Monday’s reopening print extends the BDI’s four-session winning streak or whether the Capesize move stalls now that the Baltic Exchange’s own weekly roundup flagged softer Pacific C5 fixing; whether Panamax finds an Atlantic bid to break its recent run of losses, with Panama Canal transit restrictions a possible slow-burn tailwind; and whether this morning’s Brent pullback on Hormuz de-escalation headlines proves durable enough to bring Fujairah’s bunker premium down, or whether it reverses as quickly as it appeared.