The Baltic Dry Index closed Thursday, 17 September, at 3,336, up 9 points on the day, according to handybulk.com’s daily Baltic Dry Index series. The move was carried entirely by the larger segments: the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) added 44 points to 5,656, with average daily capesize earnings up $396 to $51,296. The Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) and Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) also firmed, to 980 (+19, earnings $17,633) and 1,762 (+14, earnings $22,275). The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) was the outlier, down 43 points to 2,282, with panamax earnings slipping $392 to $20,535.

The Baltic Exchange’s own weekly commentary (Bulk report, Week 37) helps explain the split. Capesize firmed on the back of steady miner participation on C5, with fixtures moving from the low $18s to around $18.50 mid-week, while the panamax and kamsarmax market spent the week digesting an oversupply of prompt Atlantic tonnage, particularly around the North Continent, even as Pacific coal and grain demand held up better. The same report flags rising bunker costs and continuing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz as live considerations for owners. That risk premium is not abstract: the IMO’s Secretary-General, Arsenio Dominguez, told the Organization’s Sub-Committee on Carriage of Cargoes and Containers this week that the IMO has verified 80 attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since late February, with at least 22 seafarers killed, on top of a resumption of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Worth flagging for anyone reading the capesize index as a straight read on physical freight: C3 (Tubarao–Qingdao) held in the low $41s through the week, with occasional fixtures reported towards $42, while C5 (West Australia–Qingdao) gave back its mid-week gains and slipped back below $18/tonne by Friday’s close, per the Baltic Exchange’s own Weekly Roundup. The BCI 182 5TC itself ended that week at $55,139, down $1,492 from Monday. Spot rates on the benchmark iron ore routes, in other words, softened into the weekend even as the daily index printed higher into midweek — a gap worth watching before reading too much directional conviction into the capesize move.

On costs, VLSFO eased at all three hubs we track into Wednesday’s close: Singapore $913.50/mt (-$3.00), Rotterdam $716.50/mt (-$15.00) and Fujairah $1,022.00/mt (-$6.00), with MGO down a similar $13-18/mt across the same ports (shipandbunker.com). Brent, meanwhile, was sharply softer intraday at $102.29/bbl, down 2.41% (bloomberght.com) — a rare moment where fuel costs and crude are both easing together, which should offer capesize owners on longer Pacific and Atlantic legs some near-term relief on voyage economics if it holds.

What we’re watching into next week: whether the Strait of Hormuz risk premium embedded in freight and bunker pricing eases or escalates following the IMO’s public appeal; whether panamax’s oversupply problem in the Atlantic spreads or stays contained to the North Continent; and whether C3/C5 spot levels catch up to the capesize index’s midweek strength, or the index gives some of it back instead.