The headline Capesize index eased again this week (BCI 5,612, down 1.3% day on day and off the five-year high hit in early September), but the two benchmark voyage routes tell a more nuanced story. Per the Baltic Exchange’s own weekly roundup for the week of 7-11 September, C3 (Tubarao-Qingdao) generally held in the low $41s, with occasional fixtures reported towards $42, while C5 (West Australia-Qingdao) softened through the week — progressing from the low $18s to around $18.50 mid-week before late fixing slipped it back below $18/tonne into the close. That split matters: steady Brazilian iron ore demand is keeping the longer Atlantic-origin route firm, while a build-up of prompt tonnage in the Pacific is pressuring the shorter Australian run even as underlying cargo volumes hold up.

On the cost side, bunkers moved higher across the board on Wednesday’s close. VLSFO added $8.50 in Singapore to $916.50/mt, $23.00 in Fujairah to $1,028.00/mt, and a smaller $0.50 in Rotterdam to $731.50/mt. Distillate moved even more sharply: MGO in Singapore rose $16.00 to $1,464.00/mt, Rotterdam gained $22.00 to $1,530.50/mt, and Fujairah jumped $37.50 to $1,740.00/mt. The MGO-VLSFO spread is now running close to $550/mt in Singapore and over $700/mt in Fujairah, keeping the economics firmly in scrubber-fitted owners’ favour and adding pressure on ECA-transiting tonnage running on distillate.

Brent, meanwhile, is trading at $104.86/bbl today, down 0.92% on the session — a pullback in crude that has not yet fed through to yesterday’s bunker settlements shown above. If the softer oil tone persists into the next VLSFO print, it would offer some relief on the cost side just as Capesize earnings cool from their early-September peak.

What we are watching next week: whether C5 stabilises above or below the $18/tonne line, since it is the cleanest near-term read on how much of the current West Australia-China ballast build is structural versus a one-week wobble; and whether the widening MGO premium starts showing up in Handysize and MR-adjacent voyage economics on ECA-heavy trades, where the Baltic’s own Handysize commentary already flags the Continent and Mediterranean as the weaker legs.

Sources: Baltic Exchange Weekly Roundup, Bulk Report Week 37 (C3/C5, Capesize), shipandbunker.com (VLSFO/MGO, Singapore/Rotterdam/Fujairah), bloomberght.com (Brent).