Market Insight — 13.09.2026: Markets Hold at Thursday’s Close as Oman Prepares to Sign the Iran-GCC Hormuz Route Deal
Market InsightDry bulk benchmarks are unchanged from Friday’s session as markets sit through the weekend: the Baltic Dry Index remains at its last print of 3,521, delivered bunker prices are still marked at Friday 11 September’s closing levels, and Brent is quoted flat against yesterday at $104.61/bbl, down 2.81% on the week (BloombergHT, 13 September, 10:43 GMT+3). None of the four benchmark sources this desk tracks has posted a fresh print since our last update, which is expected over a weekend rather than a sign the market has stalled. The more material development is diplomatic rather than commercial: Gulf foreign ministers are due in Salalah, Oman on Monday to sign an agreement establishing a joint Oman-Iran shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.
Baltic indices — last close, 10 September 2026 (unchanged over the weekend)
| Index | Close | Day change | Average daily earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 3,521 | -99 | — |
| BCI (Capesize) | 6,122 | -278 | $55,519 (-$2,522) |
| BPI (Panamax) | 2,409 | -5 | $21,684 (-$41) |
| BSI (Supramax) | 1,713 | +9 | $21,655 (+$118) |
| BHSI (Handysize) | 931 | +9 | $16,751 (+$148) |
No new session has posted since Thursday’s close, so these remain the last confirmed prints. Capesize’s 278-point retreat still stands as the most recent move on the index, a one-session pullback from the near-five-year high struck on 4 September; whether it extends will only be visible once Monday’s fresh print lands. The geared segments closed the week firmer, with Handysize now up for an eighth consecutive session and closing in on the roughly $5,000/day gap it has held against Supramax through most of September.
Route levels — Baltic Exchange, week of 7-11 September 2026
The Week 37 bulk report remains the latest available, with Week 38 not due until later next week. C5 West Australia-Qingdao opened the week in the low $18s, firmed to around $18.50 midweek on regular miner participation, then eased back below $18/mt into Friday’s close. C3 Tubarao-Qingdao held broadly in the low $41s throughout, with occasional fixtures reported towards $42. The report put the BCI 182 5TC at $55,139 at week’s end, down $1,492 from Monday’s $57,011.
Bunkers — last close, 11 September 2026 (unchanged over the weekend)
| Port | VLSFO $/mt | Change | MGO $/mt | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 878.50 | +21.00 | 1,375.00 | +99.50 |
| Rotterdam | 730.00 | +27.50 | 1,472.50 | +64.50 |
| Fujairah | 959.00 | +34.50 | 1,608.50 | +99.50 |
Delivered prices are still carrying Friday’s sharp increase, the tail end of last week’s crude rally arriving just before Brent’s Friday reversal. Fujairah remains the dearest VLSFO port at $959.00, an $80.50/mt premium over both Rotterdam and Singapore, a Gulf premium that has now held for more than a week. With crude already down 2.81% from its highs, owners and charterers pricing stems off these numbers should expect delivered bunkers to ease with a lag once Monday’s session confirms whether the Brent pullback is holding.
Two developments worth noting
Oman and Iran are set to formalise a Hormuz shipping arrangement on Monday. GCC foreign ministers, together with Iraq, are due in Salalah to sign an agreement establishing a joint Oman-Iran route through the Strait of Hormuz and to notify the International Maritime Organization accordingly. Bahrain has said it will not take part. This is a firmer step than the “diplomats due to meet” framing carried into Friday’s close: a signature and an IMO notification, if they materialise as reported, would be the most concrete de-escalation move on Hormuz since disruption began, and is the most likely near-term catalyst for further movement in the war-risk premium that has been driving Brent.
The underlying Atlantic cargo picture has not moved, because nothing trades over a weekend. Brazilian iron ore loadings were reported up sharply week on week as of Friday, Guinean bauxite continues to generate long-haul Capesize employment into China, and the ballaster count in the South Atlantic was running at roughly half of a year ago. None of that has had a chance to change since Friday’s close, and it remains the strongest argument for treating last week’s one-session Capesize drop as a correction after a multi-week run higher rather than a genuine change in demand.
What We Are Watching
- Monday’s Salalah signing. Whether the Oman-Iran joint route agreement is actually signed, what it covers operationally (mine clearance, transit notification, route corridor), and how quickly Brent and delivered bunkers reprice if it goes ahead as reported.
- Bahrain’s abstention. Whether other GCC states follow Bahrain in staying out, which would blunt the deal’s practical effect even if Oman and Iran sign.
- Monday’s Baltic print. The first fresh BDI/BCI/BPI/BSI/BHSI close of the week, and whether Capesize’s Thursday pullback extends into a second negative session.
- The Week 38 Baltic Exchange roundup, due later next week, for whether C3 and C5 held near Week 37’s high-$18s and $42 prints or continued lower.
- The Fujairah-Rotterdam VLSFO spread, currently $80.50/mt, for whether it holds or narrows once delivered prices catch up with Friday’s Brent reversal.
Sources and dating: Baltic indices and average daily earnings — last close 10 September 2026 via handybulk.com/baltic-dry-index (most recent dated entry on the page at time of writing; no fresher entry has posted since our previous update). Bunker prices — last close 11 September 2026 via shipandbunker.com (world prices, cross-checked against the Singapore, Rotterdam and Fujairah port history pages). C3 and C5 route commentary and the BCI 182 5TC week-end print — Baltic Exchange Weekly Roundup, Bulk report Week 37, published 11 September 2026 and covering 7-11 September 2026; the Week 37 report remains the latest available. Brent crude — $104.61/bbl, -2.81%, quote 13 September 2026, 10:43 GMT+3 via bloomberght.com, unchanged from the prior session as markets are closed over the weekend. Hormuz meeting details via Al Jazeera and Muscat Daily reporting, 11-13 September 2026. Piraeus bunker prices are not carried on the Ship and Bunker world price page and are therefore not quoted. No estimated or interpolated figures are used for the Baltic, bunker or Brent data points themselves.
