The week closes on a split market. The BDI finished Thursday at 3,521, down 2.9% from where it started, but that headline number hides a segment story worth telling. Capesize did almost all the damage: the BCI dropped 4.3% in a single session, according to Trading Economics data, the sharpest move of the week by a wide margin. Panamax barely moved. Supramax actually gained, up half a percent, the only index to close the week in positive territory.

Baltic indices — close of 10 September 2026

That split matters more than the average. A broad-based drop across all segments usually points to demand weakness. This one didn’t spread. Capesize took the fall largely on its own, which suggests the pressure is coming from the iron ore and major bulk trades rather than a general pullback in dry cargo demand. Handysize data for Thursday wasn’t available at publication, so we’re working off Wednesday’s 922 reading from Handybulk. Worth checking again once the numbers catch up.

The other story this week sits outside the freight indices entirely. Brent jumped over 12% since Monday, with the bulk of that move landing Thursday, closing at $107.63/bbl (Bunker Index, 10 September). VLSFO followed at Fujairah, up $34 on the day to $918.00/mt, while Singapore ($854.50/mt) and Rotterdam ($687.50/mt) barely moved. For anyone running long-haul Capesize or Panamax stems, that’s not a footnote. Bunker eats a bigger share of voyage cost the longer the leg, and a Brent spike this size pushes break-even freight higher just as Capesize rates are heading the other way. Owners on those routes are getting squeezed from both sides this week.

We haven’t seen anything unusual out of the Suez or Panama corridors in our own AIS data, but we’re not calling either one settled. Over the weekend, the two things worth watching are whether Brent holds above $100 into Monday and whether Capesize stabilizes or keeps sliding. Both will set the tone for how next week opens.