The Baltic Dry Index closed Wednesday 9 September at 3,620, up 36 points, and every one of the five constituent indices printed flat or higher. That is the third consecutive session without a red number on the board. Brent, meanwhile, has settled into triple digits rather than merely testing them: $101.36/bbl, up 0.15% on the day (BloombergHT, 10 September, 11:14 GMT+3). The freight side is grinding higher; the cost side has already re-based. The spread between those two moves is where this week’s voyage economics are being decided.

Baltic indices — close of 9 September 2026

Capesize did the heavy lifting again, adding 87 points and $788/day to take the 182 5TC to $58,041 — a fresh high for the cycle and the third session in four that the segment has extended. The move is not violent, and that is the point: it has been built on repeat miner participation rather than one charterer clearing a queue, which historically produces a plateau rather than a spike-and-collapse.

Panamax is the segment to watch. The index closed unchanged at 2,414 with earnings up a single dollar to $21,725 — a flat print after two soft sessions. Read alongside the Week 36 warning of thinning Atlantic cargo replenishment against a lengthening tonnage list, this looks like a market that has stopped falling rather than one that has resumed climbing. Owners with September Atlantic positions should treat the flat print as stabilisation, not as a floor.

The geared segments continue their quiet grind. Supramax added $134/day and Handysize $178/day, the Handysize index now firmer for nine consecutive sessions. Handysize earnings at $16,603 sit almost exactly $5,000/day below Supramax, a spread that has been stable for a fortnight and gives no signal of size arbitrage opening up.

Route levels — Baltic Exchange, week of 31 August to 4 September 2026

The Baltic Exchange Week 36 bulk report, published 4 September, put C3 Tubarao-Qingdao above $41/mt for later dates, up from the high $38s at the start of that week, and C5 West Australia-Qingdao at around the high $18s, up from the mid-$15s. Both legs moved on sustained participation from all major miners, with Atlantic support coming from South Brazil and West Africa alongside firmer North Atlantic fronthaul enquiry.

These remain the most recent published route levels; the Week 37 report has not been released at the time of writing. Given that the BCI has added a further 114 points since that report closed, the current C3 and C5 marks should be assumed to be at or above those levels rather than at them.

Bunkers — close of 9 September 2026

Fujairah is the outlier. VLSFO there jumped $19.50 in a single session to $887.00, taking it $31.00 above Singapore and $186.00 above Rotterdam. A Fujairah-Singapore inversion of that size is not a normal working relationship, and vessels with routing flexibility through the Gulf should be stemming east of Hormuz only where the itinerary genuinely requires it.

Rotterdam remains the cheapest residual on the board by a wide margin at $701.00, but the Rotterdam distillate print is the most expensive of the three at $1,388.50 — a distillate-to-residual spread of $687.50/mt. For Continent business with meaningful ECA steaming, that spread is now the single largest controllable line in the voyage estimate.

Carbon adds to it. The EUA settled at EUR 85.59 ($99.13), pricing the cost of offsetting one tonne of VLSFO at $317.22/mt under the full 100% phase-in applying in 2026. On a Rotterdam stem that is roughly 45% again on top of the fuel invoice, and it is a cost that does not appear on any bunker quote.

Two developments worth noting

Crude has consolidated above $100, not just touched it. Brent has held triple digits for a second session following the OPEC+ decision on 6 September to leave October output at September levels, with supply-side risk in the Gulf providing the bid. The relevant point for chartering is that the bunker prints above were assessed while Brent was already above $100 — unlike Tuesday’s numbers, they are not stale. The pass-through has begun and is visible in Fujairah first.

Iron ore has firmed for a fourth consecutive session on lower shipment volumes and expectations of seasonal Chinese restocking, though high portside inventory and thin steel margins are capping the move. This is consistent with what the Capesize market is showing: real cargo demand, but demand that is being satisfied at a measured pace rather than in a scramble. It supports a firm C3 and C5 without arguing for a step-change.

What We Are Watching

• Whether Panamax turns or merely pauses. A flat print after two soft sessions is ambiguous. A second flat or positive day confirms a floor; another negative print with tonnage still building turns this into a correction.
• The Fujairah premium. $31.00 over Singapore on VLSFO is a relationship that usually closes within days. Which side closes it — Fujairah easing or Singapore catching up — determines whether the current crude rally has fully reached delivered prices.
• Capesize at $58,041. Three consecutive positive sessions at a cycle high invite profit-taking. Prompt Pacific tonnage availability is the leading indicator; miner enquiry has been the driver and has not yet slowed.
• The Week 37 Baltic roundup. Due shortly, it will confirm whether C3 and C5 have followed the index higher or whether the BCI move has been driven by the timecharter legs alone.
• Rotterdam MGO at $1,388.50. The Continent distillate spread has widened rather than corrected. Fixtures with heavy ECA exposure priced off last week’s assumptions need re-running.

Sources and dating: Baltic indices and average daily earnings — close of 9 September 2026 via handybulk.com/baltic-dry-index. Bunker prices — close of 9 September 2026 via shipandbunker.com (world prices, verified against individual port history pages). C3 and C5 route commentary — Baltic Exchange Weekly Roundup, Bulk report Week 36, published 4 September 2026 and covering 31 August to 4 September 2026. Brent crude — $101.36, +0.15%, live quote 10 September 2026 via bloomberght.com. EUA and EUA-VLSFO compliance cost via shipandbunker.com. Piraeus bunker prices are not carried on the Ship and Bunker world price page and are therefore not quoted. No estimated or interpolated figures are used in this note.